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August 6, 2008—Players for the stretch run

As we approach the fantasy baseball trade deadline and the stretch run for the season, there are players that still may be available for trade or even on your waiver wire that you want to get.  Here they are by position:

Catcher

Kelly Stoppach—CLE—5 home runs and batting over .300 for the last month.

Jesus Flores—WAS—One of the best catchers you probably never hear of.

First Base

Chris Davis—TEX— 8 home runs, 19 RBI, and .316 over the past month.  What’s not to love?

David Ortiz—BOS—Back from the DL and you may be able to get him cheap before the trade deadline.

Second Base

Mike Aviles—KC—Don’t be turned off because he plays for KC.  Over the past month, he has 4 home runs, and is hitting .402

Alexi Ramirez— CWS—Qualifies at both 2b and OF in yahoo leagues.  3 home runs and is batting .341 over the past 30 days.

Willie Harris– WAS– Has 2b, 3b, and OF eligibility. 

Shortstop

Hanley Ramirez—FLA—Been in a slump lately, but I expect that you can try to trade for him based on his most recent numbers.

Mike Aviles—KC—See 2B.

Third Base

Melvin Mora—BAL— Mora has 4 home runs and is batting .330 over the past month.

Chone Figgins—LAA—Back from the DL and starting to steal a lot of bases lately.  Trade for him.

Outfield

Fernando Tatis—NYM—I can’t believe this guy is still on the waiver wire in some of my leagues.  He’s not anymore!

David Murphy—TEX— He has 4 home runs, 19 RBI, and 2 stolen bases over the past month.

Starting Pitcher

Ubaldo Jimenez— COL—Don’t be afraid that he plays in Colorado.  He has 5 wins, 35 Ks, a 1.50 ERA, and a 1.02 WHIP over the past month.  Trade for him if you can on the cheap!

Gil Meche—KC—Another SP on some waiver wires.  He has 4 wins, a 2.83 ERA, and a 1.23 WHIP over the past month.

Relief Pitchers

Rafael Perez—CLE—Should now be the official closer and has the numbers to back it up!

Eddie Guardado—Meet the new closer in Texas.

Bobby Seay—DET—Who?  If you are trying to efficiently reduce you ERA and WHIP, while maximizing your wins and strikeouts per innings pitched, pick him up!

June 8, 2008—Co-Managing Fantasy Baseball Teams

It’s frustrating when there are co-manager of fantasy baseball or fantasy football teams.  If you don’t communicate, you run the risk of having conflicting views when it comes to making daily roster decisions.  This is very true when it comes down to player drop/adds.  Larry Wachs of the Georgia Jews fantasy baseball team recently made me co-manager of his Jeff Garlin Fantasy baseball league.  After doing 10 drops/adds during the first week, I sensed that Larry did not appreciate my aggressiveness with his roster.  I’m now taking a different approach and here are the results:

Fantasy Baseball Weekly Recommendations

Hi Larry,

Instead of me dropping and adding for you team, I think the best approach is for me to send you occasional emails with recommendations on player drop/adds.  I’ll leave it up to you to decide whether or not you want to actually make any of these drop/adds.

Your top starting pitcher, Jake Peavy, returns from the disabled list on Thursday and will make the start against Los Angeles.  Since he is on your disable list, you will need to drop one of your players in order to activate him.  My recommendation would be to drop Bartolo Colon since he is your worst starting pitcher by far.  Here is how I would rank your starting pitchers:

Jake Peavy

Edison Volquez

John Lackey

Aaron Harang

Jose Contreras

Francisco Liriano (returns from the minors in 1-2 weeks)

John Danks

Justin Verlander

Bartolo Colon

You are currently -34.1 innings off of pace, but we have added a lot of starting pitchers, so you actually may be over on innings pitched very soon with carrying 6 SPs.  Optimal would be 6-7 SPs at the maximum since you have a cap of 1400 innings pitched this season and you are currently at 506 innings pitched with 894 innings remaining.

Troy Percival returns from the DL and back into the closer role at Tampa Bay this Thursday.  Since I had him on your bench, you will not need to drop a player to activate him.  I have him in your starting lineup starting this Thursday.

Mike Gonzalez (RP – Atlanta) is currently a free agent and returns from the DL next week.  With John Smoltz out for the season and Rafael Soriano experiencing pain in his arm, Gonzalez could become the closer as early as next week.  You currently have Percival, Fuentes, and Wagner as your closers and you could make up considerable ground in saves by adding Gonzales and dropping Bartolo Colon, John Danks, or Justin Verlander.

Brad Hawpe is an outfielder for the Colorado Rockies that was dropped earlier this season and is starting to heat it up.  In 2007, Hawpe ranked 63^rd overall with 29 home runs, 116 RBIs, and a batting average of .291.  I would consider dropping Adrian Beltre and picking up Brad Hawpe.

Monitor Xavier Nady’s performance going forward.  For the season he ranks 40^th overall, but over the past month his ranking is 260^th and over the past week it is 849.

Thanks,

Jeff Boggis

“The Sultan of Stats”

May 16, 2008—Trade Evaluations

If you have been following my podcasts, you already know that I am on Rock 100.5 in Atlanta, GA on "The Regular Guys" show.  Although I did not draft his team, I am assisting Larry with his fantasy baseball team this season.  He asks for my advice on roster moves and trades, but ultimately he makes all of the managerial decisions as he should.  It is his team and I am just his unpaid, but enjoying every moment, consultant.  Usually during a commercial break right before or right after our segment, we review his team and any trade offers that he may have pending.  During the week, I receive a couple of emails asking me should he pick up so and so, along with what I think about his trade offers.  I also email him with players that I think he should pick up if they are available on this free agent wire. I received an email from Larry this morning with a trade offer involving obtaining John Lackey from his team in exchange for Justin Upton, Felix Hernandez, and C.J. Wilson.  Here are my Sultan's tips on trade evaluation:

1.  As a general rule of thumb, I dislike unbalanced trades, especially when I am on the side to where I am getting the extra players and the trade opponent is trying to "upgrade" their team.

2. John Lackey is the best player in this trade offer and the opponent is trying to upgrade his team by acquiring Lackey in this trade offer.  Lackey is plain and simple a top 5 starting pitcher for the rest of this season. In any 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 trade where you are getting the extra players, you are forced to drop players to balance out the trade and remain only carrying the maximum amount of players.

3. In any trade offer that is unbalance, you have to decide if the extra players are really going to improve your team.  Which 2 players would you drop on your team since you are receiving 2 extra players in the trade offer? And are the 2 players that you are receiving BETTER than the 2 players that you would have to bench on your team to get these 2 players into your lineup?

4. Evaluate the trends of the players involved in the trade offer.  Are they rookies or players with an unproven track record that got off to a hot start and are now "regressing to their norm"? 

Justin Upton - He is trending in the wrong direction and his "sell high" window is closing. He ranks 69th for the season, but for last month he ranks 200 and for last week he ranks 314.

Felix Hernandez - Horrible! A major drop from Lackey to King Felix Hernandez here. Hernandez is ranked 621st for the season. He only has 2 wins and his WHIP is 1.47. Last month he ranked 910 and last week he ranked 753.

C.J. Wilson - The worst closer that still has the job in the majors. He was so bad this week that he was benched and Eddie Guardado picked up his first save in over 2 years in place of Wilson. Here is clearly another player who ranks tell the story: He is ranked 298 for the season, but ranked 783 for the month and 1137 for the week. In 2.2 innings pitched last week, his ERA was 20.25 and his WHIP was 3.00.

So these are the things that you need to look at when evaluating trade offers from your opponents.  I would reject this trade.

5. Use their trade offers to leverage new trade offers to them!  If you want to make a trade with this manager, you now know that he is interested in acquiring John Lackey.  You can leverage that information to make it work to your advantage in a trade offer from you to him if you are really interested in trading away John Lackey.

6. Always try to upgrade your team.  That means trading away two or three lesser players for a stud player.  I always like to be on the "1" side of a 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 trade offer if the "1" by far the best player in the deal. 

This is my approach to trading but it may not be yours.  Remember, it is your team and you are the one who will ultimately decide your fate.  Good luck to everyone as the trading season is underway! 

April 4, 2008— Top 15 fantasy Baseball tips for April

It's not that I don't like to write articles for the website, it's just that with the podcasts, the closer report, drop adds, radio shows, etc. that does not leave a lot of time to actually sit down and write and article.  But I think that this is an important article since a lot of fantasy baseball managers tend to take it easy after their drafts and let the first month go by before they make any major management roster moves for their team.  Big mistake.  So without further adieu, here are the top tips for managing your fantasy baseball teams for the month of April. (In no particular order).

1. Analyze your team's projection spreadsheet. 

Make a spreadsheet with projected stats for all of your players and see where you currently stand in totals, what is needed to win each statistical category.  In a standard 12 team mixed league: 850 runs, 230 home runs, 850 RBIs, 175 stolen bases, 85 wins, 135 saves, 1100 Ks, 3.40 ERA, and a 1.20 WHIP.  Calculate the "percentage there" to see how close you are to each category.  For example, if you need 1000 strikeouts to win that category in your league and you are currently projected for 900 strikeouts, you are 90% there.  This will provide you with an early snapshot of your team's strengths and weaknesses.

2. Analyze all trade offers via your spreadsheet.

I get emails each day asking me to give my opinion of a trade offer, but without knowing where you stand overall in each statistical category, it is difficult to give you an accurate answer without knowing all of the pieces of the puzzle.  So what you need to do is to plug in the trade offer into your spreadsheet to see how that changes the overall projections of your spreadsheet.  Take into account what players you would have to plug into your lineup if you trade away a starter.

3. Know your "weakest link" on your roster.

How many times have you heard on TV or on the radio where the current closer is going on the DL?  You rush out to the waiver wire to pick up their replacement and you are ready to pull the trigger, but you are not sure who you are going to drop.  You ponder over your lineup for several minutes and when you finally decide on who you are going to drop, you receive the following message "player is in a pending transaction."  What that means is while you were deciding who to drop, your competition beat you to the punch and picked up the player that you both wanted.  Think it can't happen?  It has happened to me each season!  Make a list of your "weakest links" for each of your leagues.  Carry it in your wallet, tape it to your work cube, have it in your car visor, or memorize it.  It will be invaluable this season!

4. Know who the setup men are on each team.

When a closer goes down to injury, you need to know who to pick up.  Don't worry, I do all of the hard work for you.  Simply go to "The Closer Report" link at http://fantasybaseballempire.com/the_closer_report.htm to review the current closers, setup men, and latest news! 

5. Watch your waiver wire like a hawk.

Patience is not only a virtue in life, but also in fantasy baseball.  Some people lose patience in the first month of the season and simply dump good players.  One person's trash can turn into fantasy treasure for your team.  For example, in one of the fantasy baseball empire leagues this season, a manager saw that Brandon Lyon picked up the first save of the season and dumped Tony Pena to the waiver wire.  Big mistake since Lyon not only had a shaky spring, but blew his first save the next night.  I used my waiver priority and picked up Pena.  He will be closing very soon in my opinion.

6. Unload your players that are off to hot starts.

Did you really think that the guy that you picked up off of the waiver wire was going to stay that hot all season?  I bet that one of your managers may think that.  So why not use your "trade block" in yahoo leagues to first post that hot player.  If that does not work, simply email your entire league saying that you are willing to trade away your hot player to the team that makes the best offer.  What have you got to lose?

7. Make trades for players that are off to a slow start.

Conversely, make an offer to players that are off to slow starts.  Maybe someone will all of a sudden want to dump a player that is off to a slow start as they feel that they are at least getting something in return?  It happens all the time in the real world in the stock market when stocks begin to fall and they just want to get out and go into panic mode.  Take advantage of another manager's insecurities.  And how do you identify these players?  Simply go to the "players" page in your yahoo league and sort by "all players."  The O-Rank is their pre-season ranking and the Rank is their current ranking.  You can quickly scan down the list to see who is underperforming (and even over performing) to get trade offer ideas. A question that I always ask myself and there is no right or wrong answer here:  When do the draft rankings no longer matter during the course of the season?  Ponder on that question for awhile.....it will keep you up at night, trust me.

8.  Monday and Thursdays are travels days.

Traditionally, Monday and Thursdays are travel days so make sure that you have your backup players ready to go on those days.

9. Carry at least 1-2 multi-positional players on your bench for Mondays and Thursdays. 

Players like Yunel Escobar who qualifies at 2B, 3B, and SS, makes a nice plug in for your players that are off that week.

10. Do use your waiver priority wisely.

Only use your waiver priority when you are 100% sure that you really want that player.  More opportunities will come throughout the season.  Call ups of rookies, managers giving up on players, etc.

11. Use the weather reports to your advantage.

The other day I missed out on checking the weather in Baltimore as the game against the rays was rained out.  I had Brian Roberts of Baltimore in my lineup and could have moved Ryan Theriot into my lineup as he finished with 1 stolen base.

12. Email your managers frequently.

Let them know that you've updated your trade block.  Also let them know which players you are interested on their team and ask them what it would take to get them. 

13. Know your pitcher/catcher tendencies.

Did you know that J.R. Towles does not catch when Roy Oswalt starts?  How will catch most of the other games this season, so pick up a backup catcher and plug them in on the days that Oswalt in pitching.  Managing the number of games played for catchers will be the most frustrating thing that you will do all season!

14. Pay no attention to the standings until May.

There is such a small sample size that the standings mean nothing during the month of May.  Let the other managers brag on how well they are doing and hope that they get lazy as the bask in their false sense of a good team during the month of April.

15. Practice extreme patience

Patience in fantasy baseball is one of the most hardest things to do.  Be patient, don't make any brash moves, and you will be right more times than you are wrong.  Sometimes the best moves that you make are the ones that you don't make!